Don’t Hold Your Breath for GPT-5 in 2025

In the world of artificial intelligence, anticipation runs high whenever OpenAI is mentioned. Their GPT models have been game-changers, sparking conversations across industries. We can't deny, it is a constant element by now in our daily lives. But here’s the thing - while GPT-4.5 might be on the way, don’t expect GPT-5 anytime soon. At least, that’s the word from Gary Marcus, a leading voice in AI, who recently shared his thoughts on the matter.

What’s the Buzz About?

In a recent Substack post, Marcus talked about a revealing moment at a recent AI conference. A key takeaway that was shared, was that insiders are hinting at GPT-4.5 making its debut soon, but there’s been radio silence about GPT-5.

“What was said is that we should expect to see GPT-4.5 soon. What was not said by the well-informed source was that we should expect GPT-5 anytime soon,” Marcus noted. This subtle omission is pretty telling, suggesting that OpenAI is hitting some roadblocks.

Why the Hold-Up?

According to Marcus, there are two big reasons why progress might be slowing:

1. Data Drought: Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 need mountains of data to train on. But we’re hitting a wall when it comes to high-quality, diverse data. Simply throwing more data at the problem isn’t cutting it anymore.

2. Scaling Isn’t Enough: For a while, the answer seemed to be "make the model bigger." But that approach has its limits. Bigger models don’t automatically mean better reasoning or closer-to-human intelligence. New breakthroughs are needed, and those take time.

A Shift in Tone

Even Elon Musk, who’s known for his bold claims about AI, seems to be dialing back the hype. Marcus pointed out that conversations around Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) are starting to cool off as the AI community grapples with the real challenges of building smarter, safer systems.

What to Expect in 2025

If GPT-4.5 does launch in 2025, it could bring some solid improvements. Think better context understanding, more accurate responses, and smoother performance overall. But let’s be clear—this would be an evolution, not a revolution.

As for GPT-5, it’s likely still a long way off. OpenAI seems to be focusing on cracking some tough problems, like making AI better at reasoning, reducing bias, and ensuring safety. These are all critical goals, but they’re not the kind of things you can rush.

So, What’s Next?

Gary Marcus’s insights remind us of an important truth: progress in AI isn’t always as fast or flashy as we’d like.

While GPT-4.5 could bring some exciting updates, the path to GPT-5 will require patience and creativity.

As we look ahead to 2025, it might be time to shift our focus. Instead of chasing AGI, we should tackle the ethical, technical, and societal challenges that come with these powerful AI tools. GPT-4.5 might not change the game overnight, but it’s still a step forward—and sometimes, that’s what really matters.